Shrimp Season Reflection and Forecast
April until September is the time of the year where importers do their main Vannamei and Black Tiger Shrimp purchases. Retailers are confirming goods, harvesting and production are at full speed. The season took off with much higher price levels compared to April 2021. Caused by product shortage (still completing earlier confirmed Purchase Orders) as well as by rising costs in:
- Labor, both at farm and factory
- Local and international transport, including sea freight
- Packaging material and printing
In June and July prices dropped slightly (though Vietnamese Vannamei rose a bit) and remained stable until August. Due to the continuous insecure situation in Ukraine, the rising gas costs, consumers have less to spend, consumption is low, demand felt strongly, importers are careful in securing product and prices at origin collapsed from September onwards, mainly due to overproduction and a slack in demand from dominant markets as China and the US. Vannamei prices are low. On top of that, the USD has a strong exchange rate which makes a farmer have to produce more raw material in order to complete 1 USD value shrimp.
Our prediction for 2023? Keeping in mind that Black Tiger consumption mainly takes place in Northern Europe, Belgium and Germany, particularly foodservice, the forecast is that consumption either remains stable or decreases during the next months and early 2023 for the simple reason that inflation is high, gas prices won’t drop, and the average consumer has less to spend. Knowing that Black Tiger production is increasing 110% annually, we do not expect prices to rise to levels we have seen during the Covid pandemic. A challenging situation for both farmers, producers and importers since production costs keep on rising.
Other than that, we expect Asia to focus more and more on Black Tiger due to a reliable spf broodstock that has been developed, meanwhile Ecuador continues to grow even stronger in Vannamei. The big Elephant in the room remains China.
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